The Confidence of the Wrong
Why the most dangerous people are the ones who don’t know they’re wrong and never stop talking.
The Dunning–Kruger effect is simple, yet brutal:
The less someone knows, the more likely they are to overestimate their knowledge. The truly skilled tend to underestimate themselves. It’s not just a quirk of human psychology. It’s a ladder to power.
In politics, this effect is weaponized. Leaders project absolute certainty, not because they’ve mastered the facts, but because they know confidence sells. It’s easier to follow someone who never hesitates than someone who admits the truth: most complex problems have no simple fix.
The Financial Times recently explored how overconfidence grows with age, even as decision-making sharpens less. The Times looked at a reality show, The Traitors, where contestants talk big but fail big. Forbes pulled in Charlie Munger, who avoided the trap by knowing exactly what he didn’t know.
That’s the cure: humility, self-audit, curiosity. Humility however, doesn’t win elections or TV ratings, so we get leaders whose skill is not in governing, but in never doubting themselves in public, even when they’re wrong in private.
If you want to see Dunning–Kruger in its purest political form, look for the people who say they can fix everything in a day, solve every problem with a pen, and tell you they’ve “never been wrong.” The louder they brag, the more you should worry.
The Dunning–Kruger Presidency: 2025 Highlights
Feb - Trump claims to have “ended inflation” in 3 weeks, citing a single CPI dip. Economists note it was a seasonal adjustment, not policy.
April - Announces “ZERO illegal crossings” for 90 days, later revealed to be a counting change that excluded asylum seekers waiting at ports.
June - Brags that new tariffs are “making America rich” while grocery and consumer goods prices jump nationwide.
Aug - Promises to “liberate D.C. in one day” through executive orders. No long-term plan announced; local officials excluded from talks.
Sept - Declares three foreign conflicts “solved” after ceasefire photo ops; fighting resumes in two within weeks.
Ether:
A loud voice on a hollow stage, echoing into the static.
A candle lit in a storm, bragged over as if the sun had risen.
Zero is a magic trick, the ledger burns while the crowd cheers.
He sells you the rope, then charges you for hanging it.
A broom in the night can’t clean the foundations.
Paper peace signed in ink that runs at the first rain.